This week, two stocks from my watchlist stood out for completely different reasons.
NVDA appears to be losing momentum after a strong move higher, while ABT is showing early signs of recovery after a prolonged downtrend.
What made these setups interesting was not just price movement itself, but the combination of ATR, moving averages, RSI behaviour, MACD structure, and compression zones aligning together.
Instead of reacting emotionally to headlines or short-term noise, I try to approach these setups through probabilities and momentum shifts.
In this breakdown, I’ll explain:
• What caught my attention
• Which indicators mattered most
• Why does momentum appears different in both stocks
• What I’ll be watching next
• How I think about risk and timing
This is part of my ongoing process of publicly documenting stock screening, trade analysis, wins, losses, and lessons in real time.
NVDA: Momentum Beginning to Slow?
NVDA has been one of the strongest momentum stocks in the market for a long time, which is exactly why weakness becomes interesting when it starts appearing.
What caught my attention was the shift in momentum underneath the surface:
• RSI started fading toward the mid-range instead of maintaining strength above 60
• MACD histogram continued weakening
• Price struggled near support instead of bouncing aggressively
• The 8 EMA and 21 EMA started tightening
• Recent candles showed hesitation rather than continuation
One thing I pay attention to is compression after extended moves. Strong trends rarely move in a straight line forever. Eventually, momentum slows, volatility compresses, and the market decides whether to continue higher or rotate lower.
At the moment, NVDA looks like a stock trying to decide whether this is simply consolidation or the beginning of a larger pullback.
What I’ll watch next:
• Whether support around the current zone holds
• Whether RSI reclaims strength above 50
• Whether MACD starts improving again
• Whether price regains the short-term moving averages
If momentum continues weakening while volatility expands lower, bearish opportunities may begin appearing.
ABT: Early Signs of Recovery?
ABT stood out for almost the opposite reason.
Instead of losing momentum after a rally, it appears to be stabilizing after an extended downtrend.
Several things caught my attention:
• RSI recovering from oversold conditions
• MACD crossing higher with improving histogram strength
• Price is beginning to reclaim short-term moving averages
• Slower selling pressure compared to previous months
• Structure beginning to tighten instead of breaking lower
This does not automatically mean reversal.
One thing I have learned is that early recovery structures often fail before fully reversing. However, when multiple indicators begin improving together after prolonged weakness, it becomes worth watching closely.
The most important thing now is whether buyers can continue to defend higher lows as momentum gradually improves.
What I’ll watch next:
• Whether the price can hold above the nearby support
• Whether RSI can continue building above 50
• Whether MACD momentum keeps strengthening
• Whether the 8 EMA can stay above the 21 EMA
If momentum continues to improve while volatility expands higher, bullish setups may start to develop.
Why I Prefer Probability-Based Trading
One thing technical analysis has taught me is that no indicator works perfectly on its own.
Markets are emotional, reactive, and constantly changing. That is why I prefer combining:
• momentum,
• volatility,
• structure,
• and trend alignment
instead of relying on headlines or predictions.
Sometimes setups work.
Sometimes they fail.
The important part is having:
• defined risk,
• a repeatable process,
• and emotional discipline.
I’ll continue publicly documenting:
• watchlist setups,
• trade ideas,
• wins,
• losses,
• mistakes,
• and lessons
as I continue improving my screening process over time.
Disclaimer: This content is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading stocks and options involves significant risk, including potential loss of capital.